Analysis of the global and Chinese ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber market status and future development trends

Analysis of the global and Chinese ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber market status and future development trends

Who would have thought that the parachute rope of the return capsule of China’s “Shenzhou Spacecraft” was made of this material? I originally thought it was para-aramid fiber, but in the end I found that it was a rope made of UHWMPEF fiber.

Historical development trajectory:

As early as the 1930s, someone proposed the basic theory of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber. In the 1970s, Capaccio and Ward of the University of Leeds in the UK first successfully developed high molecular weight polyethylene fiber with a molecular weight of 100,000, which made ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber achieve phased progress. In the late 1970s, DSM of the Netherlands first developed dry spinning technology with decahydronaphthalene as solvent to produce ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber, and achieved industrial production in 1990.

Product performance analysis:

–‌High strength and high modulus‌: The molecular weight of UHWMPEF can be as high as one million to five million, which makes its specific strength and specific modulus the highest among all fibers‌. This high strength and high modulus make UHWMPEF perform well in heavy loads and long-term use‌ 

–‌Excellent wear resistance, impact resistance and lubricity‌: UHWMPEF has excellent wear resistance, impact resistance and lubricity, and can work for a long time in harsh environments without being easily worn or damaged‌

–‌Good chemical stability‌: It has good resistance to most chemicals and can remain stable in various chemical environments‌

–‌Lightweight and high toughness‌: UHWMPEF is light in weight and has high toughness, which makes it very useful in fields that require lightweight design‌

–‌Low temperature resistance‌: The temperature resistance range is -269℃ to 80℃‌. Within this temperature range, UHMWPE can maintain the stability of its performance and structure. However, it should be noted that the heat deformation temperature of UHMWPE is 85℃ and the melting point is 130~136℃, so in a high temperature environment exceeding these temperature ranges, UHMWPE may be thermally deformed or melted. ‌

–‌High electromagnetic wave transmittance‌: UHWMPEF has good electromagnetic wave transmittance and is suitable for applications requiring electromagnetic shielding‌

–‌Outstanding impact resistance and cut resistance‌: This makes it excel in fields requiring high protection. ‌

UHMWPE fiber types:

According to different fields, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPEF) fibers can be mainly divided into ordinary UHMWPEF fibers, ultra-high strength UHMWPEF fibers, creep-resistant UHMWPE fibers, and cut-resistant UHMWPE fibers.

According to the group standard T/CCFA 01061-2023 “Ultra-high-strength ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene filament” issued by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, its breaking strength is greater than or equal to 36cN/dtex dtex, and the initial modulus is greater than or equal to 1300cN/dtex.

UHMWPE fiber industry chain:

According to data collation: CICC International Consulting

 The upstream of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry is ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene resin. Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene resin is polymerized by ethylene, and ethylene is one of the world’s largest chemical products. The international companies of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber resin mainly include foreign companies such as Celanese Corporation of the United States, Braskem of Brazil, and Mitsui Chemicals of Japan. Among them, Celanese Corporation of the United States is the company with the highest production capacity of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber resin in the world, with a total production capacity of about 123,000 tons/year. The second is Braskem of Brazil, with a production capacity of about 45,000 tons/year. Chinese local manufacturers mainly include Henan Watson Ultrahigh Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai Lianle Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., Jiujiang Zhongke Xinxing New Materials Co., Ltd. and other companies. In 2022, China’s total production capacity will be 262,600 tons/year, and the total output will be 203,500 tons/year.

From the perspective of supply and demand, upstream suppliers have formed a fully competitive situation, the supply of raw materials for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers is relatively stable, major companies continue to expand production capacity, and suppliers are sufficient.

Among them, upstream raw materials are crucial. UHMWPE resin has excellent wear resistance, which is generally 7 times that of carbon steel, 27 times that of copper, and 4 times that of nylon 66; the impact strength ranks first among plastic materials, which is 7 times that of nylon, 5 times that of ABS (acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymer), and 10 times that of polyoxymethylene; the friction coefficient is low, which is equivalent to polytetrafluoroethylene, one-third of nylon 66, and half of polyoxymethylene.

By the end of 2023, the global total production capacity of UHMWPE resin will be about 430,000 tons/year, of which China’s production capacity will be about 220,000 tons/year. In 2023, my country’s net imports of UHMWPE resin will reach 86,000 tons, an increase of 16.3% over the previous year.

China has a high enthusiasm for UHMWPE resin investment, with 14 projects under construction and a total capacity of at least 750,000 tons/year. It is estimated that from 2024 to 2028, my country’s new facilities will have a capacity of 620,000 tons/year put into production.

In the past five years, the global demand for UHMWPE resin has grown rapidly, mainly from the rapid development of terminal applications such as new energy vehicles, with an average annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2018 to 2023. In 2023, the global consumption of UHMWPE resin totaled 397,000 tons, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year. Among them, my country’s demand was 215,000 tons, making it the world’s largest consumer market.

Global UHMWPE resin is still in a rapid development stage. With the improvement of resin disentanglement polymerization technology and functional modification technology, as well as the continuous upgrading of downstream related product processing technology, the application field will gradually expand.

In China, the largest consumer of UHMWPE resin is lithium battery separators, with a consumption of 116,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 54%, an increase of 23.5% over 2022, but my country’s independent supply is still insufficient, and more than half of the separator materials need to be imported. In 2023, my country’s sales of new energy vehicles will reach 9.495 million units, and it is expected to exceed 12 million units in 2025. In 2023, domestic lithium battery separator shipments will reach 17.69 billion square meters, with an output value of more than 25 billion yuan, and a global market share of 80%. Among the four key materials for lithium batteries, only the separator has not been fully localized, and the domestic demand for separator resin exceeds 100,000 tons, but the separator resin and film-making technology are monopolized by Celanese in the United States and Korea Petrochemical in South Korea, and still rely on imports.

The second largest consumer area is plates, profiles and bars, with a consumption of 42,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 19%. They are mainly used to make gears, sliding seats, bearing liners, coal bunkers and chute linings, etc. The production process of products is relatively simple, the equipment investment scale is not large, and the production scale is generally small. UHMWPE resin is a high-performance material that “replaces steel with plastic” and is widely used in bridge gaskets, marine buoys, and steel-plastic pipes. The market for UHMWPE resin injection molding to produce special-shaped parts is broad. Compared with nylon materials, it can reduce weight by more than 15% and improve UV resistance by 3 times.

The third largest consumer area is UHMWPE fiber, with a consumption of 35,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 16%. Products include bulletproof vests, high-performance mooring cables, cut-resistant gloves, etc. At present, more than 80% of domestic fiber UHMWPE resin raw materials have been domestically produced. 

The fourth largest consumer area is industrial pipes, with a consumption of more than 12,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 6%. It is mainly used for liquid and gas transportation in heavy industries such as petrochemicals, coal, mining, and electricity, and the application growth rate is slow.

Other consumer areas include filter materials and artificial joints. Due to the difficulty of research and development, the application market is developing slowly.

Global UHMWPE fiber market scale and supply & demand relationship

With the continuous advancement of production technology and technology research and development level, the product performance of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber has been continuously improved. European and American countries have taken the lead in applying ultra-high strength UHMWPE fibers in the field of national defense and military industry, including individual protective equipment (such as bulletproof vests, bulletproof helmets, bulletproof inserts, bulletproof shields, explosion-proof clothing, explosive search clothing, and explosive disposal clothing), helicopters/tanks/cash transporters and ships Armored protective plates, radar protective shell covers, missile covers, parachutes, etc.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI in Sweden, China is the world’s second largest military spending country. In 2023, China’s military spending accounted for 12% of the world, second only to the United States. At the same time, China is also one of the world’s major manufacturers of military equipment and supplies, and has a large consumer demand for ultra-high-strength UHMWPE fibers used in the field of national defense and military equipment. In 2023, China’s ultra-high-strength UHMWPE fiber production reached 13,300 tons.

The global UHMWPE fiber production capacity is 67,000 tons/year, and China is 45,000 tons/year, making it the world’s largest producer, but Avant, Honeywell and Toyobo of Japan monopolize high-end product technology. Many Chinese companies are actively planning to expand production capacity, and it is expected that the new production capacity will be 48,000 tons/year within 5 years.

Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers were developed and applied earlier in Europe and the United States, and the initial annual growth rate was relatively small, at about 5%. In recent years, due to conflicts and increased awareness of national security protection around the world, military equipment, security protection and other industries have developed rapidly, increasing the global demand for high-strength, high-performance ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene products. With technological progress and the further decline in the cost of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers, the application of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers in the civilian field has also entered the fast lane. According to CICC data, in 2018, the global demand for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber was 77,000 tons; in 2022, the global demand for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber was about 126,800 tons, an increase of 65% in four years, and it is expected to exceed 200,000 tons by 2026. Affected by the continuous expansion of downstream application fields, the imbalance between market supply and demand is still intensifying. 

UHMWPE fiber competition pattern

At present, the leading representative companies in the global ultra-high strength UHMWPE fiber industry market include Avant (formerly the Dyneema business of DSM of the Netherlands, acquired in 2022), Honeywell of the United States, and Tongyi Zhong, Jiuzhou Xingji, etc. in China, with a high overall market concentration. 

In 2023, by output, the global ultra-high strength ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber market CR3 is 75.16%, and the market shares of the top three enterprises are 38.65%, 19.03%, and 17.48% respectively; the CR3 of China’s ultra-high strength ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber market is 78.04%, and the market shares of the top three enterprises are 38.33%, 35.20%, and 4.51% respectively.

Analysis of the development status of UHMWPE fiber in China

1. Development stage of China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry: The industrialization of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber in my country is late, but it has developed rapidly. After entering the 21st century, my country has stepped up the industrialization process of high-tech fibers. In particular, since 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission has established a special support plan for high-tech fibers, which has greatly promoted the development of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry. After more than ten years of rapid growth, my country has become a major producer of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers in the world. At present, there are nearly 30 ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber production enterprises in my country, including Qianxilong Fiber, Tongyi Zhong, Jiuzhou Xingji Technology Co., Ltd., Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Shandong Aidi Polymer Materials Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Qiangnima New Materials Co., Ltd., Hunan Zhongtai Special Equipment Co., Ltd., etc.

At present, domestic enterprises have gradually realized the mass production of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers, realizing the import substitution of conventional products. At the same time, in terms of major indicators and functions, they have reached the same level as international leading brands, making strategic downstream application fields such as military equipment fields free from excessive dependence on imported products. However, due to the slow development of production technology in some upstream industries in China, my country’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry is still difficult to achieve supply-side resource integration in the production and manufacturing of high-end products. Therefore, in high-end products such as anti-creep and subdivided application fields such as medical sutures and radar antenna covers, my country is still in its infancy.

2. Industry development opportunities:

1) Promotion and support of industry policies and laws and regulations: Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers play a pivotal role in safety protection, aerospace, national defense equipment, marine fisheries, sports goods and other fields. Since 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, industry associations and other departments and organizations have successively issued a series of industrial policies and laws and regulations to regulate and promote the development of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises in the industry to further integrate the market and carry out industrial upgrading.

2) Broad future application demand: There is a broad market demand for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers in the military and civilian fields, and the industry is booming. In the civilian field, with the continuous development of the application of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers in marine fisheries, textile industry, safety protection and sports goods and other fields and the reduction of manufacturing costs, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers will be used more in people’s lives. In the field of military defense, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber is one of the world’s three major high-performance fibers, and its composite materials have broad applications and can be widely used in military equipment, aerospace and other fields.

According to CICC International Consulting Data

China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industrialization time is late, but it has developed rapidly. After entering the 21st century, my country has stepped up the industrialization process of high-tech fibers. In particular, since 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission has established a special support plan for high-tech fibers, which has greatly promoted the development of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry. After more than ten years of rapid growth, my country has become a major producer of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers in the world. At present, there are nearly 30 ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber production enterprises in my country, including Qianxilong Fiber, Tongyi Zhong, Jiuzhou Xingji Technology Co., Ltd., Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Shandong Aidi Polymer Materials Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Qiangnima New Materials Co., Ltd., Hunan Zhongtai Special Equipment Co., Ltd., etc.

At present, domestic enterprises have gradually realized the mass production of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers and realized the import substitution of conventional products. At the same time, in terms of main indicators and functions, they have reached the same level as international leading brands, so that strategic downstream application fields such as military equipment fields have gotten rid of excessive dependence on imported products. However, due to the slow development of production technology in some upstream industries in China, my country’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry still finds it difficult to achieve supply-side resource integration in the production and manufacturing of high-end products. Therefore, in high-end products such as anti-creep and medical sutures, radar antenna covers and other niche application fields, my country is still in its infancy.

 According to CICC data, in 2018, the total demand for China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry was about 34,800 tons; in 2022, the total demand for my country’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry was about 67,600 tons, accounting for more than half of the global total demand. As an important part of the supply chain of the military equipment industry, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber has a considerable position in the national strategy. After the country successively issued the “Guidelines for the First Batch Application Demonstration of Key New Materials (Under the background of policies such as the “Three-Year Action Plan for Enhancing the Core Competitiveness of Manufacturing (2018-2020)” and the “Guidelines for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 Edition)” (revised in 2021), my country’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry has gained good development opportunities. At the same time, the production technology of the downstream industries of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers continues to improve, broadening its application areas. With the continuous improvement of my country’s social living standards and the steady development of national defense construction, the demand for both civilian and military use will bring more abundant market vitality to ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers. According to CICC, by 2026, the total demand for China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry will exceed 120,000 tons.

Current Disadvantages 

So far, China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene production enterprises have become an important source of supply for the global market, but China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber industry as a whole shows a situation of surplus mid- and low-end production capacity and shortage of high-end production capacity.

China’s UHMWPE industry is becoming more fierce competition, and countermeasures are analyzed

With the high attention of the global market and technological innovation, especially the commissioning of a new 100,000 tons/year production unit of a certain enterprise in Tianjin, the industry has been faced with new challenges and opportunities. According to the latest data, China’s total production capacity of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene has exceeded 400,000 tons/year, an increase of 40.51% compared with 2023. This significant increase suggests that 2024 will be the peak period of industry expansion, but the rapid increase in production capacity has also caused deep concerns in the market.

1. The Chinese market is highly competitive and has begun to “Fierce competition”, and many companies have quickly joined

In the past few years, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, as a relatively niche special plastic, has been neglected by the industry, and the main production companies are mainly private companies. However, with the rise of the new energy industry and changes in the international landscape, the application of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene in downstream fields such as lithium battery separators and fibers has begun to receive attention. The key here is that private enterprises once dominated the market, but with the new round of production, the structure is undergoing subtle changes.

By the end of 2024, China’s ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene production lines have reached 15, and the proportion of private enterprises has quietly declined. For example, the market share of large state-owned enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina is gradually increasing. With the gradual withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises, the country’s efforts to independently develop high-tech products are also accelerating.

However, the rapid changes in the market do not mean that every company can survive smoothly. From a certain perspective, this “involution” has caused some small companies to face a survival crisis, especially in the context of large refining and chemical integration companies seizing cost and supply chain advantages, the future market competition is bound to become more and more fierce.

2. Overcapacity has caused concerns, and corporate profits are under great pressure

Although demand has increased significantly, market competition has also brought hidden worries. From the survey, the reason for the decline in profits in the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene industry is mainly attributed to the structural problem of overcapacity. As more and more manufacturers join the competition, the competition in product prices has become more fierce, and the industry has entered the era of “price involution”.

According to data from the rolling industry, China’s power battery industry produced a total of 965.3GWh from January to November 2024, and the market demand for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene diaphragms continued to grow with the increase in battery production, but when the demand was not fully released, corporate profits fell all the way. The net profit level of some companies has dropped to 2,000 yuan/ton, which is a decline compared to 2023, facing the challenge of life and death.

It is undeniable that with the changes in the international situation in 2022, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers not only have a strong performance in the domestic market, but also a surge in export orders. However, regulatory measures for special materials, especially in the military field, have temporarily reduced export volume, causing a tightening of domestic demand. Many companies feel helpless about this: the market supply and demand are unbalanced and urgently need to be adjusted.

3. Can the winner stand out in the face of intensified competition?

In the ever-changing market environment, what type of companies can turn the tide in the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene track? Obviously, the future of the market will still be a “sweet cake”, but companies need to clarify their positioning and strategy.

According to the forecast of Longzhong Information, between 2024 and 2026, the core mission of Chinese enterprises is to achieve full localization of raw materials and significantly reduce dependence on imports. The layout in the fields of basic materials, lithium battery separators, fibers and medical materials will accelerate, and it is expected that by 2026, these fields will gradually form significant sales.

However, the current industry is still facing the problems of overcapacity of low-end production capacity, intensified international competition and insufficient supply of technology and catalyst resources. In this regard, only those companies with first-mover advantages in supply chain management, technological innovation and large-scale production can seize the opportunity in the competition and gain market share.

Conclusion: Focus on the future and call for self-innovation of the industry

In the development of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene market, the survival and development of enterprises is not only the growth of profits, but also the self-innovation and improvement of the entire industry. In the future, further optimization of the industry structure, continuous innovation of technology and changes in market demand are all important driving forces for the development of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene.

Against this backdrop, Chinese companies need to change their mindset, strengthen market insights, increase investment in technological research and development, strive to seize every opportunity in the fiercely competitive market, and drive the leap from quantitative growth to qualitative growth.